Today’s option order flow showed two large TSLA call sweep orders targeting the $500 strike price with an expiration date of December 19, 2025. Both trades were buys and occurred near spot prices of $441–$447. This classifies the trades as fairly out of the money.
The contracts traded at $28.09 and $30.90, with sizes of 909 and 1,005 contracts, respectively. Combined premium came in at about $5.7 million. Given the long-dated nature and size of these sweeps, this activity reflects institutional confidence in TSLA’s stock price potential move heading into late 2025.
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The TSLA $500 calls expiring December 19, 2025 show a significant spike in trading activity, particularly on October 3rd, 2025. On that day, 55,536 contracts traded—far above typical levels—indicating heavy institutional participation. Following that surge, open interest (OI) increased sharply to 37,093 contracts by October 6th. This confirms that a substantial portion of those trades represented new positions rather than short-term flips.
The V/OI ratio around that date (~0.24) suggests strong continuation interest without being overly saturated. The contract’s price rebounded from $23.96 to $28.25. Meanwhile, implied volatility rose slightly from 59.0% to 60.8%, signaling renewed momentum. Overall, this pattern reflects sustained positioning and potential institutional accumulation ahead of TSLA’s long-term catalysts into 2025.
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The trade side distribution for TSLA $500 calls expiring December 19, 2025 shows an absolute buy-side bias. 100% of the trades executed at or above the ask price. Specifically, $12.2 million (68%) of volume occurred at the ask, while another $5.7 million (32%) traded above the ask. This reflects aggressive buying behavior and urgency from institutions or large traders seeking exposure.
Notably, no trades occurred at the bid, mid, or below levels, confirming that market participants were lifting offers and paying premiums to secure positions. This distribution underscores heavy conviction in TSLA’s long-term outlook as traders position ahead of a potentially major move through late 2025.
What’s Happening with TSLA
Tesla has recently generated excitement by releasing teaser videos for an event scheduled on October 7th. This has led to speculation about the unveiling of a new, more affordable electric vehicle—most likely a stripped-down version of the Model Y. These teasers follow Tesla’s record quarterly deliveries, fueled by a rush of purchases ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit.
However, analysts warn that demand could slow without such incentives. Alongside anticipation for new models, Tesla’s global sales picture is mixed, with notable declines in first-half and European deliveries, highlighting increased competition and a need for fresh offerings to sustain momentum. The upcoming announcement is seen as a crucial moment for Tesla to regain market share in the EV landscape and reinforce its innovative edge.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. is an American multinational company headquartered in Austin, Texas, specializing in electric vehicles, battery energy storage solutions, and solar energy products. Founded in 2003, Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles ranging from sedans and SUVs to trucks. They also manufacture stationary battery systems for homes and businesses, and solar panels and solar roof tiles.
The company is recognized as a pioneer in the electric vehicle market. They are known for their focus on innovation, sustainability, and advanced technologies like autopilot and full self-driving features. In addition to automotive products, Tesla is expanding its energy division with large-scale battery storage systems known as Megapacks, aiming to accelerate the global transition to renewable energy.
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| Firm | Rating / Stars | Last Update |
|---|---|---|
| CFRA | ★★★ (3-star) – Hold | 08/17/2025 |
| Market Edge | Avoid | 07/30/2025 |
| Argus | Hold | 07/25/2025 |
| Morningstar | ★★ (2-star) – Bearish | 08/08/2025 |
| LSEG | Underperform / Hold | 08/21/2025 |
| Schwab Equity Ratings | F (Strongly Bearish) | 08/22/2025 |
Analyst ratings for TSLA reflect a mixed to cautious sentiment, with most firms leaning neutral or bearish. CFRA assigns a ★★★ (3-star) rating, essentially a Hold outlook. Market Edge is more negative, issuing an Avoid recommendation.
Argus takes a neutral stance with a Hold rating, while Morningstar leans bearish, giving TSLA just ★★ (2-stars). LSEG also signals caution with an Underperform/Hold outlook. The most bearish call comes from Schwab Equity Ratings, which assigns a failing F-rating. Overall, the distribution shows limited bullish conviction, with sentiment ranging from Hold to outright Avoid, suggesting analysts are skeptical about TSLA’s near-term upside potential.
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Disclaimer: Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You may lose the entire investment, and certain strategies may result in losses exceeding the initial amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always consult a financial or tax advisor before making investment decisions.
